The Paul Rudd “look at us” gif sums up the NFC title game matchup between the 49ers and Packers very well. When the season started, no one — me, included — would have picked these two teams to be in this game. Unlike basketball and baseball, the NFL can be very unpredictable. Just look at the AFC. I’d imagine many Titans employees wouldn’t have envisioned their upcoming AFC Championship Game appearance three or four weeks ago, let alone when Week 1 kicked off.
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Last week, I reached out to people in the NFL and broke down the Vikings roster. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line this Sunday, I did the same thing for the Green Bay roster.
Packers offense
Let’s start with the Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
“Matt LaFleur and the offensive coaches have done a good job,” a scout said of Green Bay. “Old staff relied on Rodgers to carry the franchise. He was so damn good it worked forever, though it bit them in the playoffs a few times. You need balance to win big games. This staff has done that. They committed much more to running the ball, riding the zone scheme. They put Rodgers under center, and hand the ball off now. Their offense might not be as sexy numbers-wise, but given their personnel, I think the play-calling has been pretty good.”
At the time, I didn’t understand the LaFleur hire last January, but it’s hard to argue with the Packers’ 14-3 record. And unlike in the early 2010s when the Packers were a very talented all-around team, this roster has some major flaws but has won despite that. Plus LaFleur has made the Packers’ star quarterback happy, something that was clearly not the case the last two seasons under Mike McCarthy.
“Is Rodgers in his prime? No,” the scout said. “Peak Rodgers is one of the best players we’ve ever seen. Now, is he still a top-3 quarterback in this league? You bet your ass he is. He’s bought into the offense/scheme and understands they are not built to score 35-plus points anymore. They don’t have nearly the talent at wide receiver they once did. The playmakers just are not there. He’s no dummy, he gets that. While the box scores won’t blow anyone away, he’s still one of the most clutch players in the NFL. When the game is on the line, you’d only want him or Russell Wilson playing quarterback. Last weekend, game on the line, he threw dimes. That’s what he does. He doesn’t do it all game anymore, but he’ll still kill you when it matters.
“If this game is close, the game will favor the Packers. Rodgers is still that guy. But it’s on the coaches to develop a game to keep it close. And that’s a big ask. Then let 12 try to win it for you late.”
I agree. Rodgers can still play at a really high level. The Packers are potent in the red zone (64 percent touchdown rate, eighth in the NFL). But do they have enough firepower against this 49ers defense? How about the guys he’s throwing it to?
“Davante Adams is their only elite pass catcher,” the scout said. “They move him all over the place. He can line up anywhere and win. His route running, feet and ability to track the ball are excellent. He’s top-7/8 guy in this league. With the ball in his hands, he makes things happen. Only thing he lacks is top-end speed. If the Niners can stop him, the Packers will have issues. (Allen) Lazard has separated himself as Rodgers’ No. 2. Rodgers really trusts him. He’s big, has great ball skills. He’s not a great athlete, but he produces. Geronimo Allison is just a guy, and (Jake) Kumerow is a glorified blocker. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been passed over by those guys. Besides Adams, the group is very average.
“Jimmy Graham is a slower/older version of his peak self. Injuries will do that. He hates blocking with a passion, doesn’t give you much yards after the catch. He’s not exactly Mr. Tough Guy. But his catching radius is still wide, and he’s a mismatch in the red zone. Marcedes Lewis is basically an extra tackle. He’s a beast in the run game. He should be able to physically function in the run game against the 49ers defensive lineman. Other two guys they use (Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger) are a ragtag bunch.”
Looking at the group outside of Adams, it’s actually remarkable that they’ve won this many games. It has to be a bottom-6/7 group of pass-catchers in the league. Their running backs have played a massive role in their success.
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“Aaron Jones is a very productive player,” the scout said. “He might not look the part, but he can play. Perfect for their zone scheme. He plays fast and gets downhill with a purpose. He can catch, which helps them a lot. His main weakness is pass protection. I’d expect the 49ers to try and get their linebackers on him with blitzes. That is advantage Robert Saleh all day. (Jamaal) Williams is a nice backup. Physical guy who also fits the scheme. I like both these guys, and they’ve really helped balance this attack.”
The way the offensive line was described to me was simple: The left side is better at pass blocking, while the right side is better at run blocking. Like when the 49ers played Minnesota last week, this is where they have a huge advantage. If the Packers get down, they would be in major trouble. The 49ers just match up well in the trenches.
“Left tackle David Bakhtiari is still a solid player,” a scout said. “He’s their best offensive lineman. Rookie left guard (Elgton) Jenkins is a good player. Physical guy who can move bodies. I like him. The center, (Corey) Linsley, is not the biggest guy. An overachieving, smart, tough player. I’d put DeForest Buckner right over him all game. That is a major problem for the Packers if the 49ers do this.
“Right guard Billy Turner is a solid run blocker. Stunts and twists up front give him issues. I’d imagine the 49ers run a lot of games Sunday. Bryan Bulaga is a functional player at this point, much better in the run game. I can’t see him blocking Nick Bosa by himself. That’s where Marcedes Lewis should come in. He’ll have to help all game long to neutralize that front. The Vikings didn’t have an extra blocker, and we saw how that worked out.”
If the 49ers get an early lead, this game will be over. The defensive line will have another field day. I’d imagine the Packers will desperately try to slow down the game by establishing the run. Problem for them is that the 49ers are so stout up front and can shut down most running attacks. Ask Dalvin Cook how big the holes are. It’s on LaFleur to scheme some plays on the ground and keep this a lower scoring affair. Or it could be an early party at Levi’s Stadium.
Packers defense
People might forget, but Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was Rex Ryan’s right-hand man with the Baltimore Ravens (when Ryan was the coordinator) and later with the New York Jets when Ryan was the head coach and they had the top defense in the NFL. I was told by multiple play-callers this season that he’s one of the best coordinators in the league.
“Pettine is really good,” the scout emphasized. “He can be exotic by keeping it simple. He’ll play a dime defense against your base personnel just to throw you off. He has no problem playing a ton of defensive backs throughout the game. They are most comfortable playing out of sub-packages. He loves moving his pass rushers around. Getting the Smith brothers (Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, who are not actually brothers) on your weak links. Either with twists or just putting (them) head up on those individuals, regardless which guy it is. There isn’t much randomness with him. It may look different at times, but he knows exactly what he’s trying to accomplish.”
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It hit me this weekend. Both head coaches are Mike Shanahan guys (one’s obviously his son) and both defensive coordinators are bald guys who love aggressive football. These are the type of things I think about during game weeks.
“Kenny Clark is really their only good defensive lineman,” the scout said. “He’s a big-time player. Can dominate 1-on-1 situations with centers. Be a big challenge for the 49ers to block him. The other down-linemen in their 3-4 defense are just guys. But the reality is they are in nickel/dime so much it doesn’t really matter. What’s interesting in this game, the 49ers run the ball so well it’s hard to yank the big bodies off the field. Interesting chess match between Pettine and Shanahan here.”
I remember hearing a story about Clark in scouting circles. His dad was in prison and Jim Mora Jr. wanted him so badly at UCLA that Mora visited the jail to get the father’s blessing. Clark is definitely a player worth that type of effort to land.
“The Smith brothers make them go. Za’Darius is the better one,” the scout said. “He was good in 2018 for the Ravens, but he’s taken his game to another level in 2019. He has dominated most of the year. A powerful/violent player. For an edge player, speed rush is not really his thing. Where he kills blockers is on stunts. He comes flying around on interior linemen and destroys them. They’ll just line him up over guards. He’s fearless. His motor never stops running. Preston Smith is a different-type player. He’s slippery and crafty. Not a power guy, but he’s a good player, too. Those two guys, with Clark, pose problems for everyone in the league. You block them, you’ll win.”
I didn’t know much about the two Smiths coming into the season. The Packers’ new general manager, Brian Gutekunst, reshaped the defense with them. The Packers haven’t made many splashy signings over the years, but when they do, especially on defense, they rarely miss. Think Reggie White and Charles Woodson.
“The middle linebacker is a polarizing player. People love sh*tting on Blake Martinez, but I think he’s fine,” the scout said. “Media and fans all kinda crush him, but the coaches don’t feel the same way. He’s the brains of the operation on the field. He plays hard and is versatile. He doesn’t make many splash plays, so people think he’s just a guy, but he makes a ton of tackles. You could do much worse.”
It will be interesting to see how Shanahan attacks the defensive backs. He had some success with big plays during the regular-season matchup, a 37-8 blowout victory for the 49ers.
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Said the scout: “Kevin King is a tall/long Seattle-type corner. He has good ball skills, but he’s not the most fluid guy in space. They should attack him with (Emmanuel) Sanders. Quicker guys give him issues. Double moves are his downfall. Jaire Alexander is their best corner. He’s a swagged-out up-and-coming star. A true cover corner. Him against Deebo (Samuel) is a fun matchup. Both those guys won’t back down. He may be close to 40 years old (36), but Tramon Williams is still solid. He’s their nickel corner, hangs his hat on smarts and instincts. Super shifty guys can give him troubles at his age.”
The 49ers attacked King in the first game and I’d expect that to happen again Sunday. They also got Williams with Samuel on a crosser for a touchdown. Those two guys are liabilities against the 49ers’ top two wideouts.
“The rookie Darnell Savage will be a top-5 safety one day,” the scout said. “He’s already really good. An explosive player who is a violent hitter, yet plays under control. Sometimes he takes bad angles, but with time he’ll figure that out. Adrian Amos is a very steady, smart player. Nothing sexy about him, but he won’t give up big plays. Always in the right spot, these two are a good combo.”
George Kittle had a big game in the first matchup. So, between Martinez and the two safeties, they will have to do a better job corralling Kittle or it could get ugly again.
Ultimately, the 49ers are the better team. We saw it the first time these two teams played and I expect to see it again Sunday. Unless the Packers can force several turnovers or some really weird stuff happens, I expect the 49ers to win and be Super Bowl-bound. Yes, I really just casually typed that.
(Photo: Michael Zagaris / San Francisco 49ers / Getty Images)
