How far can Caitlin Clark take the Indiana Fever? Our WNBA experts debate (2024)

The 2024 WNBA season tips off Tuesday night, and with it, the most anticipated rookie class in league history makes its debut. Lottery picks Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson won’t take the court until Wednesday, and we’ll have to wait a little longer to see Kamilla Cardoso as she recovers from a shoulder injury. But the No. 1 pick is in action as Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever take on the Connecticut Sun (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2).

It’s hard to say if expectations for Clark are too high considering everything she has accomplished, including a pretty stellar preseason opener, but with anticipation reaching frenzied levels, let’s try to set the stage for Clark’s rookie campaign.

Welcome back to Getting Technical, where The Athletic’s women’s basketball experts, Ben Pickman and Sabreena Merchant, take you into our conversations about the 2024 WNBA season. In this edition, we’re focusing on the incoming rookie class and the impact it might have. We’ll discuss what we’ve seen so far, and how we think Clark will perform when the games count and if any other rookies could win the end-of-season honor.

a deep triple from Caitlin Clark 🎯 pic.twitter.com/EA5QUxgeQ5

— Indiana Fever (@IndianaFever) May 10, 2024

What are you expecting for Clark against Connecticut?

Merchant: Clark looked pretty comfortable offensively in the preseason, at least getting to her shot. The 3-pointer didn’t fall consistently against Atlanta in her second preseason game, but she was creating good looks for herself and her teammates, though an adjustment period still figures to be ahead as the Fever get used to her specific brand of passing.

Connecticut is a more creative defensive team than what Indiana has seen so far, and I think the Sun could apply some doubles and traps to fluster Clark deep beyond the 3-point line since the Fever don’t exactly have their spacing principles figured out. Nevertheless, I expect Clark to put up about 20 points, though not in the most efficient manner.

Pickman: I just want to stress even further that this is one of the most difficult opponents Clark could face for her debut. The Sun were one of the WNBA’s best teams last season. Playing most of the year without All-Star center Brionna Jones, who was out with a torn Achilles tendon, they finished the 2023 season with the league’s third-best record and were second in defensive rating. Connecticut also had the best 3-point defense, holding opponents to only 32.1 percent shooting.

I think your prediction of around 20 points is pretty reasonable, and the Sun have a number of different options they can throw at Clark. That Indiana has played the preseason without Kelsey Mitchell, who missed both preseason games with an ankle injury, will make things that much tougher on Clark, too.

Merchant: Can we acknowledge the irony of Clark starting her WNBA career against a backcourt with two South Carolina guards: Ty Harris and Tiffany Mitchell. The Hawkeyes/Gameco*cks connections will be inescapable this season.

What is a reasonable season-long expectation?

Merchant: Clark averaged 28.4 points per game in her college career, including 31.6 in her senior year. Even if she dropped off her career average by 25 percent, she would still be one of the best rookie scorers in WNBA history.

Only Cynthia Cooper (who was 34 in her first WNBA season), Seimone Augustus and A’ja Wilson have cleared the 20-point mark as rookies, and I have a hard time believing Clark won’t join that group.

Even with talented offensive players in Indiana, Clark will have the ball in her hands quite a bit; ending a possession with a jumper from a 37.7 percent collegiate 3-point shooter isn’t a bad outcome.

I’m far more interested in what Clark’s passing looks like. Of rookies coming out of college (since older players joined the league upon its inception), Sue Bird has the highest per-game average of six assists. Clark’s goal should be to best that mark.

She had only two assists against Dallas in the preseason opener, but got up to six against Atlanta. That has to be the bar if she is the Fever’s starting point guard, especially as she develops chemistry with frontcourt cornerstone Aliyah Boston.

Fever end day 8 of training camp on a high note — a SLOB with Caitlin Clark finding Aliyah Boston for the finish pic.twitter.com/CY4TzokViw

— Scott Agness (@ScottAgness) May 11, 2024

Pickman: Those are some counting metrics she might be able to reach. In terms of other accolades, in each of the past two seasons, the No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft (Boston and Rhyne Howard) made the All-Star team. Boston was even a starter in last year’s All-Star Game.

Since 2011, rookies have appeared in seven of the last 10 All-Star Games. All but one of those (Napheesa Collier in 2019) were No. 1 picks. Plus, had All-Star Games taken place during the Olympic years of 2012 and 2016, it’s fair to assume that Nneka Ogwumike and Breanna Stewart would have taken part.

All of that is to say that history would tell us that Clark making the All-Star Game (whether as a participant with Team USA or as one of the other 12 players selected) is more likely than not.

Merchant: The easier pathway to Clark being an All-Star this season might not be through Team WNBA, but rather Team USA. There has been a lot of speculation that Clark will make the Olympic five-on-five team — Chantel Jennings has her in the final 12 — based solely on her college production because Team USA likes to include members of the future generation to build continuity.

It’s possible that her quality of play would need to be higher to make the All-Star Game as a member of Team WNBA, when coaches and players would be involved in the voting process. Either way, I agree that Clark being at the midseason showcase in Phoenix in some capacity is fairly certain.

What are your expectations for the Fever?

Pickman: In December, before the Fever had won the 2024 WNBA Draft Lottery, general manager Lin Dunn was open about Indiana having a goal to make the postseason this summer. The Fever haven’t made the playoffs since 2016 but did have an eight-win increase between the 2022 and 2023 campaigns.

Under coach Christie Sides, Indiana was 8 points better per 100 possessions as well. If they maintain that level of improvement — and there’s no reason to suggest they won’t in both Sides’ and Boston’s second year — playoff aspirations are more than reasonable.

Merchant: I have the Fever seventh in my WNBA power rankings, so solidly in the playoff picture, but I think the ceiling is even higher. This is a team that I expect to improve dramatically as the year goes on, and Clark and Boston both have proven to raise their games at the highest stages. Winning a playoff series in Year 1 of their tandem is a tall task, but if they can get to the sixth seed and avoid Las Vegas and New York, maybe that’s on the table.

Could another player win Rookie of the Year honors?

Pickman: I’ll speak for us both and say we’re picking Clark to win Rookie of the Year this summer. However, I do think that Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese has the second-best chance. It appears she’ll be in the Sky’s starting lineup and have ample opportunity to produce for a franchise that is remaking itself under first-year coach Teresa Weatherspoon and general manager Jeff Pagliocca.

Reese averaged a double-double in each of her final three college seasons. She certainly could do so in her first W season. As a rookie with the Sun in 2010, Tina Charles averaged 15.5 points and 11.7 rebounds (the most for a rookie) on 48.7 percent shooting from the field. Those numbers could definitely be in play for Reese.

Merchant: I agree that Reese has the second-best chance, but for the same reasons you’ve already laid out, Brink could find herself in the mix. She’ll have the opportunity to play big minutes, and with the Sparks also in a rebuilding phase, coach Curt Miller will give her a longer runway to make mistakes.

Brink will have highlight plays as a defender, but I don’t think she’ll score enough to really be in consideration for this honor unless Los Angeles significantly changes its offensive identity. As a result, barring injury, we’re talking about very slim odds that anyone tops Clark.

(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)